Kyiv/Moscow – The war between Ukraine and Russia has entered a critical phase, marked by a mix of heightened military aggression, staggering casualties, and fragile diplomatic overtures. For the second consecutive day, Russia and Ukraine have successfully conducted prisoner-of-war exchanges, with dozens of troops returned on both sides. The operation, brokered in Istanbul, has brought home Ukrainian soldiers held since early 2022, while wounded Russian prisoners were transferred via Belarus. Russia signaled that another round of peace negotiations could be scheduled as early as next week, although substantial disagreements remain.
Overnight, Russia launched a significant drone assault targeting the cities of Odesa and Kharkiv. At least 80 Shahed drones were deployed, with Ukrainian air defences intercepting most. Despite the high interception rate, one person was killed and at least 24 were injured, including children. Emergency crews responding to the attack also came under fire. In Kyiv, a missile strike demolished a nine-story residential building, killing 28 and injuring over 140. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has reiterated calls for the international community to apply greater pressure on Moscow and to accelerate discussions on a ceasefire agreement.
Ukraine continues to sustain heavy losses, but the toll on Russian forces is also significant. Reports estimate that Russian military casualties in 2025 have exceeded 200,000, with daily losses averaging over 1,100. Despite these figures, Russian troops have continued territorial gains, including the capture of Kostiantynivka in Sumy Oblast and modest advances in Donetsk.
In a notable show of strength, Ukraine launched a bold drone strike dubbed Operation Spider’s Web earlier this month. This strike reached deep into Russian territory, destroying between 10 and 11 Tu-95 strategic bombers across multiple airbases, showcasing Ukraine’s improving long-range precision capabilities.
The economic toll on Russia is mounting. Sanctions, inflation, and the financial demands of prolonged warfare have pushed the economy to the brink of recession. Interest rates hover around 20%, and GDP growth has slowed to just 1.4%, its weakest performance in two years. Zelenskyy has called on Western allies, especially the United States and the European Union, to toughen sanctions and increase military aid. He expressed frustration over what he described as a “lukewarm” American stance toward Moscow.
As international pressure builds, the possibility of new negotiations has offered a glimmer of hope. Yet both sides remain entrenched in their positions. Ukraine insists on a halt to Russian missile attacks before engaging in further talks, while Russia continues to press for territorial concessions and NATO rollback demands. European leaders are deliberating increased defence spending, with some nations advocating for a 5% GDP threshold, while Denmark prepares to take on the EU presidency with Ukraine’s accession talks as a top priority.
As the war drags on, Ukraine faces relentless missile barrages and mounting civilian casualties, even as it expands its offensive capabilities into Russian territory. Russia, though continuing to seize ground, is facing unprecedented personnel and economic losses. Whether the emerging diplomatic channels will lead to a sustainable peace or a temporary pause before further escalation remains to be seen.